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Prediction for CME (2024-09-23T20:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-23T20:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33557/-1
CME Note: Slow, loop-shaped CME seen propagating to the southwest in SOHO C2/C3 starting around 2024-09-23T20:48Z and also seen in STEREO A which accelerates with time. May be associated with two areas of dimming seen best in GOES 284 which may represent footpoints for this eruption near S40W05 and S25W40 (centerpoint S33W23) located near the vicinity of AR3827. The CME arrival is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 4nT to 7nT, reaching approx. 9.2nT. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 300 km/s to 350 km/s. An increase in density and temperature is also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-28T07:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-28T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33559/1
Model Inputs:
2024-09-23T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=23.0, Lat.=-38.0, Speed=338.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2024-09-24T10:13Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-09-28T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-30T22:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-28T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240924_101300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 90.98 hour(s)
Difference: 7.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2024-09-24T12:01Z

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